Currently six points behind Minnesota-Duluth and Miami (which are tied for fourth place in the NCHC going into the final week of conference play), the Mavs have been mathematically eliminated from home ice, because the fourth NCHC seed will be claimed by either of those teams, as they play each other this weekend.
Consequently, UNO is playing for points to determine its opponent on the road the weekend of March 11-13. The Mavs could finish in either fifth or sixth place, depending on how they do this weekend in Denver and how that UMD/Miami series turns out.
The Mavs could end up playing Miami, Denver, or St. Cloud on the road.
One possible scenario: The scenario involving UMD sweeping Miami and UNO sweeping Denver would result in UNO being tied with Miami at 31 points. However, Miami has the better winning percentage in head-to-head games versus UNO, which is the first tiebreaker for NCHC seeding. That would give Miami the fifth place seed.
If Miami sweeps UMD, Miami would finish in fourth place with 37 points. UMD would finish the season with 31 points. If UNO were to sweep Denver, we'd be tied with UMD with 31 points. Because we played an "unbalanced" conference schedule with UMD (only one series, when they came to Baxter Arena), the first tiebreaker (head-to-head comparison) cannot be used. Consequently, it goes to a comparison of overall wins versus NCHC teams. In that scenario, UNO would finish ahead of UMD and play at Miami, as the number five seed.
If UMD and Miami end up splitting the series or if they both come away with ties (basically, if both of them get points), we will finish in sixth place, regardless of what happens in Denver this weekend.
The NCHC has compiled a PDF that outlines all the possible scenarios. Check it out here: