With one weekend left in the regular season, it all comes down to this. The top eight teams in the NCHC advance to the playoffs, while ninth place brings the season to an immediate end. For Omaha, the stakes are simple: earn points, and the season continues. Fall short, and the season is over.
Omaha enters the final weekend one point behind Arizona State for the eighth and final playoff spot. Because Arizona State holds that one-point advantage, the Mavericks must earn at least one more point than the Sun Devils this weekend to catch them in the standings. If the teams finish tied in total points, Omaha would win the NCHC regulation wins tiebreaker and claim the final playoff spot.
Arizona State controls its own destiny, but faces one of the toughest challenges in the conference, closing the regular season on the road against a Denver team tied for second in the NCHC standings.
The NCHC awards three points for a regulation win, two points for an overtime or shootout win, one point for an overtime or shootout loss, and zero for a regulation loss. That means each team can earn anywhere from zero to six points this weekend.
Here are all the ninth-place scenarios:
If Omaha earns 0 points (finishes with 21)
Omaha is eliminated regardless of Arizona State’s results.
Arizona State would finish with at least 22 points and claim the final playoff spot.
If Omaha earns 1 point (finishes with 22)
If Arizona State earns 0 points (finishes with 22) → teams finish tied → Omaha makes playoffs (Omaha wins in regulation wins the tiebreaker)
If Arizona State earns 1-6 points (finishes with 23-28) → Omaha finishes ninth
Omaha would need Arizona State to be swept in regulation to create a tie scenario.
If Omaha earns 2 points (finishes with 23)
If Arizona State earns 0 points (finishes with 22) → Omaha makes playoffs
If Arizona State earns 1 point (finishes with 23) → teams finish tied → Omaha makes playoffs (Omaha wins in regulation wins the tiebreaker)
If Arizona State earns 2-6 points (finishes with 24-28) → Omaha finishes ninth
If Omaha earns 3 points (finishes with 24)
If Arizona State earns 0-1 points (finishes with 22-23) → Omaha makes playoffs
If Arizona State earns 2 points (finishes with 24) → teams finish tied → Omaha makes playoffs (Omaha wins in regulation wins the tiebreaker)
If Arizona State earns 3-6 points (finishes with 25-28) → Omaha finishes ninth
This is the classic “split weekend” scenario. Omaha would need Arizona State to earn no more than one point at Denver.
If Omaha earns 4 points (finishes with 25)
If Arizona State earns 0-2 points (finishes with 22-24) → Omaha makes playoffs
If Arizona State earns 3 points (finishes with 25) → teams finish tied → Omaha makes playoffs (Omaha wins in regulation wins the tiebreaker)
If Arizona State earns 4-6 points (finishes with 26-28) → Omaha finishes ninth
If Omaha earns 5 points (finishes with 26)
If Arizona State earns 0-3 points (finishes with 22-25) → Omaha makes playoffs
If Arizona State earns 4 points (finishes with 26) → teams finish tied → Omaha makes playoffs (Omaha wins in regulation wins the tiebreaker)
If Arizona State earns 5-6 points (finishes with 27-28) → Omaha finishes ninth
If Omaha earns 6 points (finishes with 27)
If Arizona State earns 0-4 points (finishes with 22-26) → Omaha makes playoffs
If Arizona State earns 5 points (finishes with 27) → teams finish tied → Omaha makes playoffs (Omaha wins in regulation wins the tiebreaker)
If Arizona State earns 6 points (finishes with 28) → Omaha finishes ninth
A sweep gives Omaha its strongest path, but they would still need Arizona State to earn four points or fewer to guarantee the playoff spot outright.
The official NCHC tiebreakers for playoff seeding follow a specific order established by the conference. (You can find that page here.)
The first tiebreaker applies only if the tied teams played a balanced schedule against each other, meaning an equal number of home and away games. In that case, the higher seed is awarded to the team with the best regulation winning percentage in head-to-head conference games against the tied team or teams. If the schedule between tied teams is unbalanced, this head-to-head criterion is skipped entirely and the conference moves to the next tiebreaker.
The next tiebreaker is the greater number of NCHC regulation wins. This counts all regulation wins in conference play, not just head-to-head matchups.
If still tied, the next tiebreakers are regulation winning percentage in head-to-head games, regulation goal differential in head-to-head games, and regulation winning percentage against other conference opponents, starting with the highest-ranked teams and continuing down the standings until the tie is broken. If none of those criteria resolve the tie, the final tiebreaker is a coin flip.
Because Omaha and Arizona State played an unbalanced schedule this season, the balanced head-to-head tiebreaker does not apply. The first applicable tiebreaker would be total NCHC regulation wins — and Omaha holds a decisive edge in that category, with 7 regulation wins compared to 4 for Arizona State. Because overtime and shootout wins do not count toward this tiebreaker, only regulation victories are used. That means if the teams finish tied in points, Omaha would win the tiebreaker and claim the final playoff spot.
The Bottom Line
Omaha does not fully control its destiny. The Mavericks must earn at least one more point than Arizona State this weekend to catch the Sun Devils in the standings — and would win the regulation wins tiebreaker if the teams finish tied.
There are no more games. No time to recover from mistakes or wait for next weekend.
Every shift matters now.
The Mavericks enter the final weekend needing points (and help) to extend their season. Regulation wins carry the most weight. Overtime could change everything. A single point could be the difference between moving on and the season ending.
For the seniors, it is the last time they will skate at Baxter Arena wearing an Omaha jersey. For everyone in that room, it is the final chance to keep writing their story.
Two games. Six points available. A season on the line.
What happens next will decide whether this team’s story continues, or ends.
As Tyler Rollwagen said last week, quoting captain Griffin Ludtke:
“We hold the pen to our story.”
This weekend, the Mavericks will write the ending.
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