NCHC Preseason Media Poll – Expectation vs. Reality: 2026 Update

“Have we ever not finished higher than our preseason projection (in the NCHC Preseason Media Poll)?”

That was Collin Miller’s question in the MavPuck Facebook group last year after I posted that the Mavericks were picked to finish seventh in the 2025-26 NCHC Preseason Media Poll.

The answer at the time was yes — it had happened three times, in 2015-16, 2016-17, and 2021-22.

Well, we can add another year to the list.

Omaha was picked seventh in the nine-team NCHC for 2025-26 and finished eighth. The Mavericks ended the conference season with 24 points and an 8-16-0 NCHC record.

So, through 13 seasons of NCHC play, Omaha has now finished lower than its preseason projection four times: 2015-16, 2016-17, 2021-22, and 2025-26.

There have also been years when Omaha has outperformed the media’s expectations — sometimes wildly. The most notable example remains the inaugural season of NCHC play, 2013-14, when the media picked Omaha to finish dead last, but the Mavericks finished third in the conference — a five-place difference.

Overall, Omaha has tended to outperform its preseason projection. In 13 NCHC seasons, the Mavericks have finished higher than predicted eight times, exactly where predicted once, and lower than predicted four times. On average, Omaha has finished about 1.1 spots higher than its preseason projection.

Which brings us to 2026-27.

For the first time since that inaugural NCHC season, the media has picked Omaha to finish last.

With St. Thomas joining the NCHC this season, the conference now has 10 teams. Denver was picked to win the Penrose Cup with 304 points and 14 first-place votes, just ahead of North Dakota with 302 points and 12 first-place votes.

Omaha received 69 points and was picked 10th.

So the Mavericks have nowhere to go but up.

We'll come back in March and see where they actually finish.

2026-27 NCHC Preseason Media Poll:

Denver – 304 points (14 first-place votes)
North Dakota – 302 (12)
Minnesota Duluth – 273 (7)
Western Michigan – 237
Miami – 175
Colorado College – 159
St. Thomas – 121
St. Cloud State – 102
Arizona State – 73
Omaha – 69

Sources: NCHC final standings and annual NCHC Preseason Media Poll releases.

Note: This is an update to the 2025 blog post.